📊 Recent Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Ham-Kam
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine makes Sarpsborg 08 FF a 65% call — a clear lean, and about as certain as this model gets on a three-way market where the draw always takes a share of the book.
We have Sarpsborg 08 FF at 65% where the consensus of 13 bookmakers has 55% — a gap in our favour of 10 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 50/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Sarpsborg 08 FF took the points at home with a 1-0 win over Ham-Kam, securing three points through a goal from Nibe in the 29th minute. It wasn't the dominant performance our model had anticipated—we'd backed a 3-0 scoreline—but the result itself landed squarely in our pre-match expectations. The designated home side's win probability sat at 65%, and that's exactly how it panned out.
Before kickoff, the model favoured Sarpsborg on the back of a strong home record and Ham-Kam's fragile away form. The underlying gap in quality looked clear-cut, and we'd expected it to show in a comfortable scoreline. The match did play out consistently with those fundamentals—Sarpsborg controlled the game and Ham-Kam couldn't get going—but the visitors' defence held firmer than our forecast allowed, and Sarpsborg didn't add the cushion goals we'd predicted. One goal was enough, though, and it proved sufficient to settle the contest.
It's a reminder that even when the model gets the direction right, football doesn't always deliver the exact margin. We'd weighted a higher-scoring game based on the home side's recent record and the away team's defensive struggles, but Sarpsborg found an opener early in the second half and managed the game from there. The win's straightforward, the call on the result was solid, but the scoreline's a fair example of how precision in football predictions has its limits.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarpsborg 08 FF Win Value | 4/6 1.70 | 55% | 65% | +10% |
| Draw | 3/1 4.00 | 24% | 18% | -6% |
| Ham-Kam Win | 10/3 4.33 | 21% | 17% | -4% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Sarpsborg home record WWW with recent wins, Ham-Kam away form poor (LDWDDLD) and conceding heavily
H2H: Home dominant — Sarpsborg 5 wins in last 8, avg 3.8 goals/game, recent 4-0 and 3-2 home victories
Stakes: Both teams mid-table, normal motivation — no relegation/promotion pressure skewing effort
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 3-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Sarpsborg 08 FF dominate this fixture with 5 wins in last 8 meetings, high-scoring pattern (3.8 avg goals), and recent home wins of 4-0 and 3-2 — Ham-Kam have struggled to contain Sarpsborg at home historically.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 3-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 3-0 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
