📊 Recent Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Rosenborg
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 38%. Sarpsborg 08 FF edge it at 37% against 30% for the draw and 33% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Note that the projected scoreline of 1–2 points to Rosenborg while the probabilities favour Sarpsborg 08 FF. Those answer different questions. A home win is spread across 1–0, 2–0, 2–1 and more, so no single home scoreline need be the most likely result on the board even when home is the most likely outcome. The engine publishes the modal scoreline and the outcome probabilities side by side rather than forcing them to agree.
We have Sarpsborg 08 FF at 37% where the consensus of 6 bookmakers has 40% — a gap against us of 3 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 58/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Rosenborg made quick work of Sarpsborg 08 FF on the road, running out 3-0 winners in a match that never felt as close as the scoreline might've suggested at halftime. Aslak Fonn Witry opened the scoring in the 29th minute, then doubled Rosenborg's advantage just seven minutes later—Witry turning provider that time for Adrian Nilsen Pereira. The damage was done before the break, and although Sarpsborg couldn't find a way back into it, Jonas Sogaard Mortensen wrapped things up deep into stoppage time with Rosenborg's third.
Our model leaned toward a 1-2 Rosenborg win beforehand, giving that outcome a 33% probability alongside 37% for a Sarpsborg victory and 30% for a draw. So we called the right team, but badly underestimated the margin. We'd flagged Rosenborg's strong form and Sarpsborg's struggles at the back, yet the gap between our 1-2 projection and this 0-3 scoreline suggests we didn't fully weight how much Sarpsborg's motivation issues might compound their defensive weaknesses once Rosenborg got ahead early. The match essentially broke in the opening 40 minutes and stayed that way—a scenario our model had considered plausible but hadn't centered on.
Still, getting the result direction right matters. Rosenborg's class showed, Sarpsborg couldn't deliver, and the model's read on the two teams' relative positions held up. We just missed the scale of the performance.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 6 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarpsborg 08 FF Win | 11/8 2.33 | 40% | 37% | -3% |
| Draw Value | 11/4 3.74 | 25% | 30% | +5% |
| Rosenborg Win | 13/8 2.60 | 35% | 33% | -2% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 Sarpsborg 08 FF mid-table (P9) — low motivation
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Sarpsborg poor overall (20% win rate, WLDDDLLDWD); Rosenborg in strong form (70% win rate, DWWWWLWWLW). H2H: 4.3 avg goals, high-scoring fixture with Sarpsborg holding 3 wins to Rosenborg's 1 in last 7. Stakes: Sarpsborg mid-table with low motivation; Rosenborg pushing for top-half finish. Betting: BTTS supported by both teams' H2H scoring records and Sarpsborg's poor defensive record (1.88 conceded avg); Over 2.5 backed by 4.3 H2H avg and Rosenborg's attacking output (2.59 scored avg), though Espen Eskas as referee may tighten the game slightly.
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Last 7 meetings average 4.3 goals per game with a neutral dominance pattern — Sarpsborg hold the historical edge (3 wins) but Rosenborg won the most recent April 2026 meeting 2-1, a scoreline that mirrors this prediction.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
