📊 Recent Form
Sassuolo
Lazio
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Lazio at 45%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 25% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Lazio at 45% where the consensus of 8 bookmakers has 40% — a gap in our favour of 5 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as medium at 55/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 8 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo Win | 15/8 2.94 | 32% | 30% | -2% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.47 | 28% | 25% | -3% |
| Lazio Win Value | 11/8 2.37 | 40% | 45% | +5% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 Sassuolo mid-table (P14) — low motivation
- 🏆 Lazio in title race (P1)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Sassuolo xG 0.77 | Lazio xG 2.38
Projected: 18% / 25% / 57%
H2H: 2W-1D-5L
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 0-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
2W-1D-5L for Sassuolo in H2H
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 0-2 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 0-2 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.
