Atletico Madrid came to Seville and took the game away early, putting Sevilla to the sword with a dominant first-half display. Baena opened the scoring in the fourth minute after good work from Lee Kang-In, then Lookman doubled the advantage just before the half hour with Barrios setting him up. Baena struck again in the 33rd minute—this time Llorente the provider—to effectively settle it by half-time. Sevilla pulled one back through Sierra on 66 minutes with Ure's assist, but it was only ever going to be a consolation in what turned into a comprehensive away win.

Our model leaned toward Atletico Madrid at 40% but predicted the scoreline would be tighter—a 1-2 finish rather than the 3-1 we got. The direction was right; the margin wasn't. Before kickoff, the data suggested a cagey affair shaped by Atletico's superior shot conversion and Sevilla's defensive solidity, with goals likely thin on the ground. That didn't hold. Atletico's attacking rhythm in the opening half was clinical and relentless, and Sevilla's back line simply couldn't cope with the tempo and movement. The home side's defensive record, which looked solid on paper, cracked under sustained pressure from a team firing on all cylinders.

There's a lesson here in the limits of form snapshots. Atletico arrived chasing a top-four spot with real hunger, and they showed it from the whistle. Sevilla had the home advantage and title-race motivation, but motivation alone doesn't stop a team that's dialed in. Our model wasn't wrong to rate both sides as motivated—it just underestimated how thoroughly one of them would dominate the ball and the scoreboard once the whistle went.