Sevilla came from behind to edge Rayo Vallecano 2-1 in a match that swung dramatically on discipline and set pieces. Garcia put Rayo ahead early with a fourth-minute strike, but Sevilla levelled through a Guridi penalty on 52 minutes. The decisive moment came deep into stoppage time when Peque converted another penalty to secure the win—though Sevilla had spent the closing stages down to ten men after Salas was sent off in the 88th minute.

Our model leaned toward a Sevilla win at 41% probability, though it flagged a 1-0 scoreline as more likely than what actually unfolded. The pre-match picture suggested a low-scoring affair: Sevilla solid at home but struggling to break teams down, Rayo vulnerable on the road but dangerous in attack. The fixture history pointed toward tightness too—four draws in the last eight meetings kept the model cautious about backing a comfortable margin. That wariness was partly justified; the match did stay compact and competitive. What we didn't anticipate was how much the game would hinge on set pieces and a red card. Penalties and dismissals reshape contests in ways that form and possession patterns alone can't predict, and that's exactly what happened here.

Sevilla's resilience—grinding out a result despite being outnumbered late on—edged them past a Rayo side that started brightly but couldn't hold on. For our model, it's a correct result direction but a miss on the exact scoreline and match shape. That's the nature of football predictions: you can nail the winner and still get the detail wrong.