Sturm Graz vs Rennes — Prediction & Analysis

Fixtures › UEFA Europa League

UEFA Europa League Wed 16 Sep 2026

Sturm Graz Home

1–2

Predicted

Rennes Away

Away Win High · 73%

CleverScores Prediction

1 – 2

Away Win High · 73%

Sturm Graz

36%

Draw

27%

Rennes

37%

📊 Recent Form

Sturm Graz

WLWLDW

3W · 1D · 2L 1.67 pts/game

Rennes

LLLDWW

2W · 1D · 3L 1.17 pts/game

Oldest on the left, most recent on the right — the same form the engine used when it priced this fixture.

🧭 How the Model Sees It

Nothing here clears 38%. Rennes edge it at 37% against 27% for the draw and 36% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.

We have Rennes at 37% where the consensus of 9 bookmakers has 49% — a gap against us of 12 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.

The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.

Confidence is filed as high at 73/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.

Built from the figures above — no separate commentary, so it cannot drift out of step with them. 8th Day Engine · 2026.08.25

📖 The Preview

This one's tight but Rennes just about edge it. The Europa League knockout pressure suits both sides, but Rennes arrive with stronger recent momentum, winning seven of their last ten. Sturm Graz are no pushovers at home and should grab a goal here, which is why both teams scoring looks likely, but Rennes have enough quality to nick this 2-1 on the night. A one-goal winning margin feels about right given how evenly matched the win probabilities are, with just a whisker separating the two sides overall.

Written from the engine's own inputs — form, head-to-head and motivation — at the moment the prediction was made.

💰 Finding the Value

Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.

Selection	Odds	Market %	Model %	Edge
Sturm Graz Win Value	5/2 3.60	26%	36%	+10%
Draw	11/4 3.80	25%	27%	+2%
Rennes Win	10/11 1.94	49%	37%	-12%

1 value market identified in this fixture.

Edge is the gap between our model probability and the bookmaker consensus. A +5% or larger edge means we think this outcome is meaningfully more likely than the market does. Odds shown are the median across all bookies in both fractional (UK) and decimal formats — always verify current prices with your bookmaker. Predictions are for information only and are not financial advice.

⚡ Stakes & Context

🏆 UEFA Europa League knockout — elimination stakes

🔍 Key Stats

Form: Sturm Graz WWLDWLWLDW (avg 1.81 scored, 1.24 conceded); Rennes WWWDLLLDWW (avg 1.59 scored, 1.14 conceded). Rennes' away record WLD shows they can pick up results on the road.
H2H: Limited data available between these sides.
Stakes: UEFA Europa League knockout — elimination stakes ensure maximum intensity from both sides. Neither team will sit back.
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.

⚔️ Head to Head

Limited data — no significant H2H history available to draw meaningful trends from.

🎲 Betting Tips

Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.

Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.

CleverScore confidence: 73/99 · High

Predictions are modelled estimates built from form data, head-to-head history, and contextual signals. Football is unpredictable — never bet more than you can afford to lose. 18+. BeGambleAware.org