📊 Recent Form
Sunderland
AZ Alkmaar
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 44%. Sunderland edge it at 43% against 24% for the draw and 33% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have Sunderland at 43% where the consensus of 9 bookmakers has 57% — a gap against us of 14 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as high at 72/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📖 The Preview
Sunderland edge this one at home, and you can see why when you look at the numbers. AZ come in as the form side on paper with a strong recent run, but Sunderland hold a 43% win probability on their own patch in a knockout tie where home advantage genuinely matters. Both teams are expected to score, and with over 2.5 goals likely, this has legs as a contest. AZ nick one back to make it nervy, but Sunderland do enough to see it out 2-1 and advance.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland Win | 4/6 1.65 | 57% | 43% | -14% |
| Draw | 3/1 4.00 | 24% | 24% | ±0% |
| AZ Alkmaar Win Value | 4/1 4.80 | 19% | 33% | +14% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 UEFA Europa League knockout — elimination stakes
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Sunderland home LWWW but low-scoring (avg 1.03 scored); AZ away WWWD scoring freely (2.54 avg, last away results: 3-2, 5-2, 2-0)
H2H: Limited data — no meaningful recent meetings to skew prediction
Stakes: UEFA Europa League knockout — both teams at full intensity, no rotation expected, elimination sharpens AZ's superior technical quality
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data — no significant recent H2H history available to establish a scoring trend between these sides.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
