Arsenal came to the Stadium of Light and got the job done, though it took a dramatic finish to seal it. Sunderland grabbed a shock lead from the penalty spot in the 56th minute through Le Fée, and for a moment you'd have thought the visitors were in trouble. But Arsenal hit back almost immediately—Bruno Guimarães restored parity just two minutes later with Declan Rice providing the assist. The match stayed locked at 1-1 until the final moments, when Reinildo Isnard Mandava's red card in the 90+6th minute left Sunderland a man down. Saka made no mistake from the spot in the 90+7th minute to settle it, giving Arsenal a 2-1 victory that felt harder-earned than the scoreline suggests.

Our model predicted a 1-3 Arsenal win and assigned the visitors a 56% chance of victory—comfortably the most likely outcome, though far from a done deal. We got the result direction right, but the actual scoreline was tighter than expected. Before kickoff, the underlying factors shaped a clear picture: Arsenal were in the title race and carried far more motivation, while Sunderland were mid-table with little at stake. Arsenal's defensive record and Sunderland's attacking struggles also favoured the visitors. The match played out broadly in line with those expectations, with Arsenal eventually dominating possession and chances, though Sunderland's penalty and the dramatic finale added more tension than our model had weighted in. It's a reminder that even when the broad narrative holds, a single moment—a foul, a spot kick, a sending off—can compress what looked like a comfortable win into a close-run thing.