📊 Recent Form
Swansea
Burnley
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 44%. Swansea edge it at 43% against 26% for the draw and 31% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Across 13 bookmakers the consensus lands within 1 points of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 54/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Swansea came out swinging and made it count. Adam Idah broke the deadlock early on in the 13th minute, and the home side looked sharp from the start. They doubled their advantage through Moussa Kounfolo Yeo in the 33rd minute—Elijah Just providing the assist—to put themselves firmly in control at the break. Burnley pulled one back through Largie Ramazani in the 58th minute, courtesy of Igor Júlio's assist, but it proved nothing more than a consolation. Zan Vipotnik sealed it for Swansea in the 68th minute, Ronald Pereira Martins getting the assist, to round off a commanding performance.
Our model had leaned toward a 2-1 Swansea win pre-kickoff, which correctly called the result direction but underestimated how decisively Swansea would control the tie. The model assigned just a 43% probability to a Swansea win, so while we nailed the outcome, we were hedging across multiple scenarios heading in. Before the match, Swansea's home form and Burnley's injury troubles and winless run suggested goals were likely, but the actual scoreline showed Swansea's superiority ran deeper than the pre-match metrics quite captured. The hosts delivered on the expectation that they'd win, but with a sharper edge than anticipated—a fitting display from a side chasing promotion spots against an opponent scrapping to avoid the drop.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea Win | 11/10 2.10 | 43% | 43% | ±0% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.40 | 27% | 26% | -1% |
| Burnley Win | 9/4 3.20 | 30% | 31% | +1% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🎯 Swansea chasing top-2 (P3)
- 🆘 Burnley in relegation danger (P23/24)
- 📊 Learning: draw probability nudged higher based on Championship history
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Swansea averaging 1.11 goals scored at home with solid defensive record (0.84 conceded); Burnley averaging 1.01 scored but 1.75 conceded overall, winless in 10 (DLDLDLDDLD)
H2H: Away team has dominated historically (5 Burnley wins, 3 Swansea), avg 2.4 goals/game — goals are expected but Burnley's injury list disrupts their away threat
Stakes: Swansea chasing top-2 promotion spot (P3) — high motivation; Burnley in relegation danger (P23) — desperate but depleted
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Away team has dominated this fixture historically with 5 wins in 8 meetings averaging 2.4 goals per game, but Burnley's current injury crisis (6 absentees) and winless away run significantly reduce their ability to replicate that trend on the road.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.