📊 Recent Form
West Ham
Derby
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts West Ham at 57%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 27% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have West Ham at 57% where the consensus of 12 bookmakers has 69% — a gap against us of 12 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as medium at 62/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
West Ham put on a commanding display to beat Derby 3-0, taking the lead early through Joel Piroe's finish off Taty Castellanos's assist in the sixth minute. They added a second through Edvin Austbö in the 87th minute, then sealed it in injury time when Mohamadou Kante converted from another Austbö assist. It was a thoroughly one-sided affair that saw the Hammers dominate a Derby side who never really threatened.
Our model predicted a 2-0 West Ham win, which got the result direction right but missed the third goal. The 57% win probability for West Ham made it the most likely outcome, though far from certain—there was real probability mass on a draw given the mid-table status and mixed motivation of both sides going in. What swung it was West Ham's proven attacking threat at home, where they'd shown they could put teams to the sword, while Derby's injury troubles and leaky defence left them vulnerable. The match unfolded pretty much in line with those pre-match expectations: a controlled West Ham performance with Derby offering little resistance, just with an extra goal added on for good measure.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham Win | 4/11 1.36 | 69% | 57% | -12% |
| Draw Value | 4/1 4.90 | 19% | 27% | +8% |
| Derby Win | 7/1 8.00 | 12% | 16% | +4% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 West Ham mid-table (P11) — low motivation
- 😴 Derby mid-table (P15) — low motivation
- 📊 Learning: draw probability nudged higher based on Championship history
🔍 Key Stats
Form: West Ham averaging 2.34 goals scored at home with recent 4-2 and 4-1 wins; Derby averaging only 1.08 goals scored and 1.48 conceded with WLDLLDLWLL recent run
H2H: West Ham dominant in recent meetings, averaging 3 goals per game — high-scoring fixture history
Stakes: Both teams mid-table with low motivation, slight lean toward draw but Derby's injury crisis tips it toward a controlled West Ham win
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
West Ham have won 2 of the last 3 H2H meetings with home dominance confirmed; average of 3 goals per game suggests open play but Derby's current squad depth crisis changes that dynamic significantly.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.