Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction
Final score: Dodgers 4–7 Brewers ·Engine pick: Milwaukee Brewers to win ✓ Correct
Dodgers
100-62 · W3
Brewers
103-59 · W5
Final Result & Grading
Graded 2026-10-13 07:00:55 · engine mlb-sim-1.1.
Pre-Game Win Probabilities
Cyan is the model’s favourite, red the underdog.
Starting Pitchers
Recent Form
Oldest on the left, most recent on the right — hover any result for the opponent and score.
Team Stats · 2026 Season
| Dodgers | Brewers | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 100-62 | 103-59 |
| Win % | .617 | .636 |
| Division | NL West | NL Central |
| Division rank | 1st | 1st |
| Games back | - | - |
| Last 10 | 8-2 | 8-2 |
| Streak | W3 | W5 |
| Home record | 51-30 | 55-26 |
| Away record | 49-32 | 48-33 |
| Runs scored/gm | 4.94 | 5.14 |
| Runs allowed/gm | 3.70 | 3.81 |
| Run differential | +201 | +214 |
How The Model Sees It
The engine makes Milwaukee Brewers a 52.2% pick to win — the thinnest of leans, barely past a coin flip. Baseball punishes certainty: the best team in the league still loses roughly four nights in ten. It is filed as coin flip, the bottom tier: the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Dodgers come in 6-4 over their last 10, scoring 2.90 and conceding 2.30 runs a game. Brewers are 9-1 in their last 10 at 4.10 scored and 2.30 allowed. Brewers arrive in the better shape, though ten games is a short window and form is weighted lightly here.
On the mound it is Yoshinobu Yamamoto for Dodgers against Logan Henderson for Brewers — the largest single input on this page. One start moves a baseball projection further than a full lineup change would, which is why the engine waits for both probables before scoring a game.
Season run differential reads +201 for Dodgers and +214 for Brewers. Per game that is 4.94 scored against 3.70 allowed, versus 5.14 and 3.81. Close enough that season quality is not the deciding input here — the pitching matchup does more work than the standings.
Brewers are 55-26 at home, Dodgers 49-32 on the road. Home advantage in baseball is real but small — historically worth something near 54%, not the lopsided edge it carries elsewhere — so the splits inform this projection without dominating it. The ballpark matters more than the venue: run environment varies more between parks than between lineups.
The projected total is 8.9 runs — a middling run environment. Through the first five innings, before the bullpens take over, it favours Brewers at 43% — under half because the first five is a three-way market: five innings can finish level, and that outcome takes a share of the book. Against the de-vigged market the model rates Brewers 7.4 points higher than the books. That disagreement is the interesting part — the market is sharp, so a departure usually traces to one specific input rather than noise.
This pick was published before first pitch and graded against the final score above — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
8th Day Engine · mlb-sim-1.1
