Rosenborg swept Fredrikstad aside with a dominant 4-0 victory that went well beyond what our pre-match model had forecast. The floodgates opened early—Pereira struck in the 10th minute with an assist from Selnaes, then Ceide made it two just three minutes later, also set up by Selnaes. That pair of quick goals essentially decided the match before half-time. Chiakha added a third in the 77th minute, courtesy of Bomholt's assist, before Fossum rounded off the scoring in the 88th minute.

Our model leaned toward a Rosenborg win at 63% and predicted a 2-0 scoreline, which got the result right but badly underestimated the margin. We'd flagged Rosenborg's statistical dominance at home and Fredrikstad's away form as the key dynamic, but we also weighted their rest advantage—Fredrikstad had nine days between matches while Rosenborg came in on just two days. That fatigue concern tempered our confidence in a bigger margin. In the end, Rosenborg simply overwhelmed their visitors and showed little sign of the tiredness we'd anticipated. The match unfolded as a clear home win, but it was a much more convincing one than we'd called it.