Rosenborg vs Fredrikstad
📖 The Preview
Rosenborg are heavy favourites here and the numbers back it up, with a 62% win probability against a Fredrikstad side genuinely fighting to stay in the division. You'd think a relegation-threatened team would show up desperate, but Fredrikstad are badly hit by absentees, with Kvile, Sorlokk, Leach, Ohlenschlaeger and Owusu all missing. That's a squad that's threadbare at a crucial moment. Rosenborg aren't exactly firing on all cylinders in motivation terms sitting mid-table, but at home against a depleted side, 4-1 is a result that makes complete sense.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rosenborg Win Value | 8/11 1.71 | 55% | 62% | +7% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.80 | 25% | 22% | -3% |
| Fredrikstad Win | 7/2 4.55 | 20% | 16% | -4% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 Rosenborg mid-table (P10) — low motivation
- 🆘 Fredrikstad in relegation danger (P12, only 2 pt cushion)
- ⏱️ Rest advantage: Fredrikstad (9d) vs Rosenborg (2d) — Fredrikstad significantly fresher
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Rosenborg xG 2.5 | Fredrikstad xG 0.5
Projected: 71% / 21% / 8%
H2H: 2W-2D-1L
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 4-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
2W-2D-1L for Rosenborg in H2H
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 4-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 4-1 scoreline totals 5 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.