Start Predictions
AI-powered match predictions, accuracy tracking, and bookmaker consensus comparisons.
📊 Past Predictions (latest 5)
Start pulled off a comeback win at Kristiansund to claim a crucial three points in the relegation battle, running out 2-1 victors in a match that punished our model's confidence in the home side. Sander Hestetun Kilen got Kristiansund off to a bright start with an early goal in the 15th minute, assisted by Alexander Munksgaard, and that put the designated home side in control. But Start hit back quickly through Erlend Segberg on the quarter-hour mark—Eirik Schulze the provider—to level things up. The away side then held their nerve, and Tom Strannegard sealed it deep in stoppage time with an assist from Hakon Lorentzen to snatch a one-goal win.
Our model came into this one backing Kristiansund fairly heavily, with a predicted 2-0 scoreline reflecting the home advantage and Start's poor away form. The win probability had Start down at just 25 per cent, so this was very much the outsider's result. That said, neither team was confident here—both sides are scrapping to avoid the drop, and that uncertainty should've been a flag that almost anything was plausible. The model leaned on Kristiansund's superior fitness depth and the fixture's historical low-scoring pattern, but Start's resilience and their ability to nick a goal late showed exactly why single-outcome predictions in tight matches can come unstuck. The away side never gave up despite the early setback and got their reward when it mattered most.
Fredrikstad claimed a crucial 2-1 victory over Start in a match that unfolded in starkly different phases. Start's desperation showed early when J. Cornelius struck in the eighth minute with an assist from H. Lorentzen, catching the home side cold and exploiting their inconsistent form. That shock early lead, however, proved temporary. Fredrikstad equalised through D. Eid in the 65th minute before O. Ohlenschlaeger restored the advantage in the 75th, with Eid providing the assist. The match turned bitter in stoppage time when Start's A. Ujkani received a red card in the 90+3rd minute, leaving the visitors to rue what might have been.
The prediction of a 3-0 Fredrikstad win proved directionally sound but tactically off the mark. Our model correctly identified Fredrikstad as clear favourites and called the outcome, but significantly overestimated the margin. The key factor we'd flagged—Start's dismal away record of six consecutive losses—did ultimately matter, yet it manifested differently than anticipated. Rather than a rout, Fredrikstad were forced to rally from behind, suggesting their home-ground resilience (evident in recent form of WLDW) outweighed the inconsistency that defines their season overall. Start's early goal demonstrated they remain capable of moments on the road, but the underlying frailty in their away performances eventually told. For both clubs battling relegation, this result carries outsized weight: Fredrikstad consolidated their position with a hard-fought home win, while Start's inability to hold their advantage away from home deepens their crisis at the foot of the table.
Start produced a dominant first-half performance to upset Valerenga 2-0, dismantling our pre-match prediction in emphatic fashion. The hosts struck twice in quick succession through early dominance: J. Cornelius opened the scoring in the fifth minute with an assist from O. Jebali, then S. Mvoue doubled the lead just 27 minutes later, again with Jebali providing the assist. Start's clinical finishing and midfield control in the opening stages proved decisive, and Valerenga never recovered.
Our model predicted a 0-1 away victory for Valerenga with a 43% win probability favoring the visitors. That assessment rested on tangible form disparities—Start's zero wins in 16 games and alarming home record contrasted sharply against Valerenga's steadier mid-table position and recent back-to-back wins. We also weighted Valerenga's historical dominance in this fixture, with six wins in the last eight meetings. The injury burden on Start and their relegation desperation were factored in, though we rated their attacking output too low and underestimated their ability to convert limited chances when it mattered.
What shifted the narrative was Start's execution when opportunities arrived. Despite laboring under genuine pressure and missing key attacking personnel, they were precise and clinical early on. Valerenga's away-day complacency—perhaps reflecting that mid-table mentality we noted pre-match—proved costly. The gap between our probability assessment and this result underscores how knockout football can confound statistical modeling: form trajectories matter, but so do singular moments of sharpness and the occasional tactical click. This was Start's statement, delivered at exactly the moment they needed it most.
Bodo/Glimt's dominance over Start reached new heights on Saturday, with a comprehensive 4-1 victory that never felt in doubt despite a late penalty consolation. Sjøvold opened the scoring in the 24th minute, assisted by Hauge, before Auklend doubled the lead just before halftime. Start's afternoon was effectively ended when Toure received a red card in the 37th minute, leaving the hosts to defend with ten men for more than an hour. Lorentzen converted a penalty in the 45th minute to offer brief resistance, but Bodo/Glimt's superior numbers and quality proved insurmountable. Berg added a third in the 78th minute, with Evjen sealing the result in the 87th.
Our model predicted a 0-2 scoreline with a 52 percent probability favoring Bodo/Glimt, correctly calling the result direction but undershooting the final margin. The key factors we'd flagged proved decisive: Start's relegation-zone form—winless in ten matches and conceding 3+ goals regularly—left them vulnerable, while Bodo/Glimt's attacking potency and defensive stability held firm. The red card fundamentally altered the contest's trajectory, though Bodo/Glimt had already established clear control through the opening 45 minutes. Our expectation of a low-scoring affair reflected Start's attacking limitations, but once numerical disadvantage took hold, the visitors simply shifted through the gears to a more comfortable victory.
The scoreline ultimately vindicates the underlying form disparity. Start's desperation failed to translate into performance, while Bodo/Glimt's quality—evident across their recent run—converted chance creation into goals with clinical efficiency. The gap between these sides remained as pronounced as the recent history suggested.
Viking's 6-3 victory over Start delivered exactly the result our model predicted, though the scoreline proved far more chaotic than anticipated. The hosts dominated possession and territory throughout, but Start's early aggression caught them off guard. Ole Toure's third-minute opener and Sander Mvoue's 32nd-minute strike gave the visitors a shocking 2-0 lead, defying the vast quality gap between the sides. Viking's superiority eventually overwhelmed Start's defensive fragility, with Gjermund Stensness pulling one back before halftime, then surging ahead through Pål Christiansen's 46th-minute goal. By the hour mark, the match had become a procession, with Stian Kvia-Egeskog, another Christiansen strike, Kristoffer Askildsen, and Zlatko Tripic adding further Viking goals in the second half to seal a commanding victory.
Our prediction of a 3-0 scoreline correctly identified the outcome direction and Viking's dominance, but severely underestimated the match's goalmouth activity. The flagged defensive vulnerabilities—particularly Start's 2.33 goals-conceded average—proved real enough across the 90 minutes, yet the visitors' toothless attack statistic didn't account for early clinical finishing from Toure and Mvoue. Start's rest advantage and Viking's six-day turnaround appeared negligible factors. The Poisson model's 5-1 suggestion proved closer to reality, hinting that while our conservative 3-0 call captured Viking's superiority, the underlying xG data was better calibrated to the match's fluid nature and both teams' propensity to create chances. This served as a useful reminder that even dominant home victories can involve more narrative complexity than pure defensive shutouts.