📊 Recent Form
Start
Bodo/Glimt
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Bodo/Glimt at 52%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 23% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Bodo/Glimt at 52% where the consensus of 12 bookmakers has 77% — a gap against us of 25 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as low. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Bodo/Glimt's dominance over Start reached new heights on Saturday, with a comprehensive 4-1 victory that never felt in doubt despite a late penalty consolation. Sjøvold opened the scoring in the 24th minute, assisted by Hauge, before Auklend doubled the lead just before halftime. Start's afternoon was effectively ended when Toure received a red card in the 37th minute, leaving the hosts to defend with ten men for more than an hour. Lorentzen converted a penalty in the 45th minute to offer brief resistance, but Bodo/Glimt's superior numbers and quality proved insurmountable. Berg added a third in the 78th minute, with Evjen sealing the result in the 87th.
Our model predicted a 0-2 scoreline with a 52 percent probability favoring Bodo/Glimt, correctly calling the result direction but undershooting the final margin. The key factors we'd flagged proved decisive: Start's relegation-zone form—winless in ten matches and conceding 3+ goals regularly—left them vulnerable, while Bodo/Glimt's attacking potency and defensive stability held firm. The red card fundamentally altered the contest's trajectory, though Bodo/Glimt had already established clear control through the opening 45 minutes. Our expectation of a low-scoring affair reflected Start's attacking limitations, but once numerical disadvantage took hold, the visitors simply shifted through the gears to a more comfortable victory.
The scoreline ultimately vindicates the underlying form disparity. Start's desperation failed to translate into performance, while Bodo/Glimt's quality—evident across their recent run—converted chance creation into goals with clinical efficiency. The gap between these sides remained as pronounced as the recent history suggested.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Start Win Value | 9/1 10.22 | 9% | 25% | +16% |
| Draw Value | 11/2 6.45 | 14% | 23% | +9% |
| Bodo/Glimt Win | 1/5 1.21 | 77% | 52% | -25% |
📊 Heads up: bookmakers disagree
Across 12 bookmakers, the consensus favoured Bodo/Glimt (77% implied probability). Our engine saw this match differently.
We surface this disagreement so you can weigh both views. The pick above is our engine's, not the bookmakers' — but if you'd usually trust the market, this is worth knowing.
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Start in relegation danger (P16/16)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Start winless in 10, conceding 3+ per game; Bodo/Glimt on WDLWWWWDLW run, strong defensively
H2H: Bodo/Glimt won 4 of last 8, with two massive away wins (5-0, 6-0) in recent meetings
Stakes: Start in relegation battle but poor form suggests desperation rather than performance; Bodo/Glimt chasing top positions
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 0-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Bodo/Glimt have been dominant in recent H2H, winning the last two meetings 5-0 and 6-0 against Start. Start's only wins came in 2018, making this a one-sided recent trend in Bodo/Glimt's favour.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 0-2 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 0-2 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.
