Al-Hilal Saudi FC overwhelmed Al Khaleej Saihat with a dominant display, running out 5-1 winners in a match that underlined the vast gulf between title contenders and mid-table sides. Meite opened the scoring in the 15th minute from Milinkovic-Savic's assist, before Milinkovic-Savic himself doubled the lead in the 29th. Al Khaleej pulled one back through Al Amri in the 38th, but any hope of a comeback evaporated when Hernandez made it 3-1 on the stroke of half-time. Summerville added a fourth in the 43rd minute, then capped a relentless opening 45 with a sixth-minute of injury time seeing Mandash net a fifth. Al Khaleej did convert a penalty through Barrow in the 67th for consolation, but the damage had long been done.

Our model called an Al-Hilal win at 57% probability — a lean rather than a strong conviction, and the scoreline proved more emphatic than the predicted 0-3. The pre-match setup favoured the visitors: Al-Hilal chasing a top-two finish with a seven-day rest advantage, Al Khaleej mid-table and showing poor form. The home side's inability to trouble Al-Hilal's defence until halfway through the second half bore out the underlying expectation of a lopsided contest, though Hilal's attacking prowess was sharper than the forecast suggested. The blueprint — a fresher, hungrier side dismantling a side with little to play for — held up; the execution just outpaced the numbers.