📊 Recent Form
Al Riyadh
Al-Qadisiyah FC
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Al-Qadisiyah FC at 52%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 26% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Al-Qadisiyah FC at 52% where the consensus of 8 bookmakers has 71% — a gap against us of 19 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as medium at 55/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 8 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Riyadh Win Value | 7/1 8.10 | 12% | 22% | +10% |
| Draw Value | 9/2 5.48 | 17% | 26% | +9% |
| Al-Qadisiyah FC Win | 1/4 1.27 | 71% | 52% | -19% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 Al Riyadh mid-table (P11) — low motivation
- 🎯 Al-Qadisiyah FC chasing top-2 (P3)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Al Riyadh xG 0.7 | Al-Qadisiyah FC xG 2.4
Projected: 4% / 27% / 69%
H2H: 1W-1D-4L
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 0-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
1W-1D-4L for Al Riyadh in H2H
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 0-2 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 0-2 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.
