Atletico Madrid came away from Mendizorrotza with a 2-1 win that kept their title push on track, though not before Alaves gave them a proper scare. Grimaldo opened the scoring early in the first half at the 33-minute mark, assisted by Jonathan David, but the hosts levelled from the penalty spot just before the interval when Boyé converted at 45+6. The decisive moment came in the 87th minute when Romero restored Atletico's lead with an assist from Baena Rodríguez, though the visitors had to see out the final stretch with ten men after Angel Pérez Hidalgo's red card in the 61st minute.

Our model predicted a 1-2 scoreline with Atletico Madrid at 44% to win—the most likely single outcome, but far from a lock. That lean on an Atletico victory held up, and we nailed the exact score, though the path there wasn't quite as settled as a two-goal deficit suggests. Alaves' home form looked solid on paper heading in, and they matched what the model expected in attacking output. Atletico's recent shape—averaging 2.33 goals per game before this fixture—played out as anticipated, but Alaves staying competitive even after going down to ten men showed they weren't just a walkover.

The red card at 61 minutes tipped the momentum firmly Atletico's way, and Romero's finish made sure they'd hold on. It's the kind of result that keeps second-place Atletico in the conversation, especially with the points on the board from a fixture where the hosts had genuine chances to disrupt the script.