📊 Recent Form
Austin
Real Salt Lake
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 40%. Austin edge it at 39% against 25% for the draw and 36% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Note that the projected scoreline of 1–2 points to Real Salt Lake while the probabilities favour Austin. Those answer different questions. A home win is spread across 1–0, 2–0, 2–1 and more, so no single home scoreline need be the most likely result on the board even when home is the most likely outcome. The engine publishes the modal scoreline and the outcome probabilities side by side rather than forcing them to agree.
Across 8 bookmakers the consensus lands within 1 point of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 58/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 8 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Win | 6/4 2.50 | 38% | 39% | +1% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.68 | 25% | 25% | ±0% |
| Real Salt Lake Win | 6/4 2.52 | 37% | 36% | -1% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Austin in relegation danger (P14/15)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Austin poor at home (LLDDD), RSL inconsistent away (WLLL) but recent head-to-head form strongly favours RSL
H2H: RSL win 4/8, avg 3.6 goals/game — historically high-scoring fixture supporting both teams scoring
Stakes: Austin in relegation battle (P14/15) providing urgency but defensive frailty undermines their chances; RSL with no pressure
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
RSL dominate this fixture with 4 wins in 8, including recent 3-1 and 2-1 victories; average of 3.6 goals per meeting makes high-scoring outcomes historically common between these sides.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
