📊 Recent Form
Avellino
Pisa
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 35%. a draw edge it at 34% against 34% for the draw and 33% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have a draw at 34% where the consensus of 10 bookmakers has 29% — a gap in our favour of 5 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as medium at 54/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📖 The Preview
Both sides are pretty evenly matched here and honestly neither has a huge reason to push for a winner. Avellino are sitting tenth and Pisa sixth, so there's nothing riding on this for either of them. The form books tell the same story too, both teams mixing wins with draws and losses over their last ten. A goal each feels right given the model expects both to score but backs away from a high-scoring game. Comfortable enough to nick a goal, not hungry enough to chase a second. A point apiece suits everyone.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avellino Win | 2/1 2.99 | 31% | 33% | +2% |
| Draw Value | 9/4 3.24 | 29% | 34% | +5% |
| Pisa Win | 5/4 2.31 | 40% | 33% | -7% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 Avellino mid-table (P10) — low motivation
- 😴 Pisa mid-table (P6) — low motivation
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Avellino averaging 1.37 goals scored at home with mixed results (LWDWL); Pisa averaging 2.12 goals scored but away form inconsistent (DWLDLW)
H2H: Last 2 meetings both won 1-0 by Avellino, averaging just 1 goal per game — historically tight
Stakes: Both teams mid-table (P10 and P6) with no promotion or relegation pressure — dead rubber dynamic favours conservative, draw-leaning play
Betting: both teams to score, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Last 2 meetings both ended 1-0 to Avellino (2016 and 2017), averaging just 1 goal per game — strongly low-scoring trend, though old data limits weight.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-1 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.
