Burnley and Derby played out a 1-1 draw in a match that embodied the desperation of two sides fighting relegation. Zeki Amdouni put Burnley ahead in the 34th minute with an assist from Lucas Pires Silva, and it looked as though that might be enough to settle a scrappy contest. But Derby had other ideas, and Mohammed Fuseini levelled deep into injury time at 90+3, courtesy of a Rhian Brewster assist, to snatch a point from the jaws of defeat.

Our model called 1-0 to Burnley before kickoff, though it's worth noting the draw at 1-1 was very much in the picture given the form of both sides and the tight circumstances. The model's 24% lean on a draw reflected the volatility here — two clubs in genuine danger, both playing cautiously, neither willing to take real risks. The final scoreline didn't match our prediction, and the draw probability, while flagged, wasn't the call we pushed hardest. That said, the match unfolded in line with what you'd expect from two teams scrapping in the bottom half: low on finesse, high on stakes, and the kind of late twist that's all too common when desperation collides with fragility.

Burnley couldn't hold on despite dominating the opening exchanges and going ahead. Derby showed the character to fight back when it mattered most, though whether either side emerges from this with real momentum is another question entirely. For our model, this was a reminder that even well-reasoned leans can be undone by the chaos of the pitch — and in a match this tight, that's exactly how it should be.