📊 Recent Form
Burnley
Middlesbrough
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 40%. Middlesbrough edge it at 39% against 30% for the draw and 31% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Across 13 bookmakers the consensus lands within 1 points of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as low at 35/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Burnley and Middlesbrough played out a 1-1 draw at Turf Moor, with neither side able to find a decisive edge in a competitive Championship encounter. Middlesbrough struck first through Morris, who converted in the 23rd minute after an assist from Berhalter. Burnley responded after the interval when Raghouber levelled the match in the 54th minute, setting up a finish from a pass by Amdouni. Both teams had their chances to win it, but neither could break the deadlock and the sides left with a point apiece.
Our model had predicted a 0-2 away win, giving the draw just a 30% probability — so this outcome fell outside our main call. The model had weighted Middlesbrough's advantage in expected underlying quality before kickoff and expected a tighter, lower-scoring affair overall. In reality, both sides showed enough going forward to score, and the match ended level rather than following the cleaner sheet scenario we'd flagged.
That said, a draw wasn't a freak result. It sat comfortably within the range of plausible outcomes our model had mapped out, and the quality of chances both teams created — evidenced by the goals themselves — bears out that this was competitive football rather than a heavy upset. The model missed the direction, but the match played in a reasonable neighbourhood of what the pre-match numbers had suggested was possible.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley Win | 7/4 2.80 | 34% | 31% | -3% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.50 | 27% | 30% | +3% |
| Middlesbrough Win | 11/8 2.40 | 39% | 39% | ±0% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Burnley in relegation danger (P23/24)
- 😴 Middlesbrough mid-table (P6) — low motivation
- 📊 Learning: draw probability nudged higher based on Championship history
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Burnley xG 0.93 | Middlesbrough xG 1.84
Projected: 20% / 34% / 46%
H2H: 4W-4D-0L
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 0-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
4W-4D-0L for Burnley in H2H
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 0-2 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 0-2 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.