📊 Recent Form
Cagliari
Bologna
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 39%. Cagliari edge it at 38% against 27% for the draw and 35% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Note that the projected scoreline of 1–2 points to Bologna while the probabilities favour Cagliari. Those answer different questions. A home win is spread across 1–0, 2–0, 2–1 and more, so no single home scoreline need be the most likely result on the board even when home is the most likely outcome. The engine publishes the modal scoreline and the outcome probabilities side by side rather than forcing them to agree.
We have Cagliari at 38% where the consensus of 6 bookmakers has 30% — a gap in our favour of 8 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 58/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Bologna made good on their survival desperation with a clinical 2-0 win at Cagliari, proving too composed when it mattered. Nicolo Casale broke the deadlock in the 57th minute with an assist from Juan Miranda, then Federico Bernardeschi sealed it from the penalty spot in the 80th. It wasn't the exact scoreline our model had pencilled in — we'd gone 1-2 before kickoff — but the result direction was spot on.
Our model gave Bologna a 35% lean heading into the match, so calling the winner was never a confident shout, just a reasonable read among plausible outcomes. The pre-match picture made sense: Bologna were in genuine trouble in 15th and fighting for survival, which sharpened their focus even though their away record looked shaky on paper. Cagliari, sitting mid-table with no special pressure, weren't priced as strong challengers. Bologna's history at this ground also mattered — they'd won their last three competitive visits there. What didn't quite land was the goalmouth economy. We'd expected a tighter, more open game at both ends; instead, Cagliari offered very little in attack and Bologna's defensive shape held firm. It wasn't the free-flowing affair the 1-2 prediction implied, but it was a job done, and in a relegation scrap, that's what counts.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 6 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Win Value | 9/4 3.23 | 30% | 38% | +8% |
| Draw | 2/1 3.02 | 32% | 27% | -5% |
| Bologna Win | 11/8 2.42 | 38% | 35% | -3% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Bologna in relegation danger (P15, only 1 pt cushion)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Cagliari avg 0.89 scored/1.36 conceded at home (mixed); Bologna avg 0.99 scored/1.56 conceded but 20% win rate overall — away record poor (WLLL) yet boosted by survival stakes
H2H: Bologna dominant — 5 wins in last 8, won last 3 competitive meetings at Cagliari's ground
Stakes: Bologna in 15th with only 1pt safety cushion — high desperation factor; Cagliari mid-table with no special pressure
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Bologna have won 5 of the last 8 meetings and are dominant when visiting Cagliari, including a 0-2 win in October 2025 and October 2024 — a clear and consistent away-dominant trend.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
