📊 Recent Form
Celtic
Dundee Utd
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine makes Celtic a 68% call — a clear lean, and about as certain as this model gets on a three-way market where the draw always takes a share of the book.
We have Celtic at 68% where the consensus of 8 bookmakers has 74% — a gap against us of 6 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as high at 74/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📖 The Preview
Celtic are strong favourites here at around 68%, and it's not hard to see why. They're top of the league chasing the title, they've won five of the last eight head-to-heads, and with both teams expected to score, Dundee United will fancy their chances of nicking something. The problem for United is their recent form has been pretty patchy, and Celtic simply have too much riding on this to slip up at home. A 2-1 win feels right - Celtic do enough, United make it nervy late on.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 8 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic Win | 1/4 1.27 | 74% | 68% | -6% |
| Draw | 9/2 5.75 | 16% | 17% | +1% |
| Dundee Utd Win Value | 9/1 9.55 | 10% | 15% | +5% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 Celtic in title race (P1)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Celtic avg 2.19 scored at home with strong title motivation; Dundee Utd avg 1.71 scored, conceding 1.53 away
H2H: Celtic dominant — 5 wins in last 8, including 4-0 and 5-0 thrashings; avg 2.9 goals/game
Stakes: Celtic in title race (P1) adding meaningful intensity; Dundee Utd in mid-table with normal motivation
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Celtic have won 5 of last 8 H2H meetings including back-to-back 4-0 and 5-0 wins at Tannadice; when playing at home Celtic have been especially dominant with scorelines like 4-0 in January 2026, reflecting a clear and consistent pattern of Celtic superiority in this fixture.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
