📊 Recent Form
ST Mirren
Hibernian
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 43%. Hibernian edge it at 42% against 24% for the draw and 34% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have Hibernian at 42% where the consensus of 8 bookmakers has 46% — a gap against us of 4 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as high at 73/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📖 The Preview
Hibs are down in last place and absolutely desperate for points, and sometimes that kind of pressure actually gets a result out of a team. St Mirren's recent form has been pretty patchy too, so this isn't a walkover by any means. But the model fancies Hibs to nick it 2-1 away from home, and honestly when a side is fighting for their lives you can see them grinding out exactly that kind of narrow road win. Both teams getting on the scoresheet makes sense given how open these fixtures tend to be.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 8 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ST Mirren Win Value | 5/2 3.40 | 28% | 34% | +6% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.65 | 26% | 24% | -2% |
| Hibernian Win | 1/1 2.03 | 46% | 42% | -4% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Hibernian in relegation danger (P12/12)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: ST Mirren scoring just 1.07 avg goals, conceding 2.64 at home — deeply leaky defence. Hibernian averaging 1.14 goals scored away but their defensive record (1.71 conceded) is superior.
H2H: Last two meetings both ended in Hibernian wins (2-0, 3-0), giving them clear psychological edge in this fixture.
Stakes: Hibernian in last place (P12/12) fighting relegation — high desperation factor. ST Mirren mid-table with nothing pressing.
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Hibernian have won the last two meetings convincingly (2-0 Feb 2026, 3-0 Nov 2025), reversing the earlier draw-heavy pattern. Recent H2H trend clearly favours Hibernian, especially away from home.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
