📊 Recent Form
Heart Of Midlothian
Rangers
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Heart Of Midlothian at 45%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 24% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Heart Of Midlothian at 45% where the consensus of 8 bookmakers has 30% — a gap in our favour of 15 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 68/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📖 The Preview
Hearts at home with something to prove is a dangerous proposition, and that's exactly what we've got here. They're sitting third and desperate to push into that top two, while Rangers arrive second in the title race — so both sides have genuine motivation to go for it, which is why we're expecting goals at both ends. Hearts' home form has been solid enough, and the head-to-head is pretty even, but on a big night at Tynecastle the atmosphere counts for plenty. Rangers are tough to beat, hence the 2-1 rather than a comfortable margin, but Hearts edge it.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 8 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heart Of Midlothian Win Value | 9/4 3.14 | 30% | 45% | +15% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.65 | 26% | 24% | -2% |
| Rangers Win | 11/10 2.10 | 44% | 31% | -13% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🎯 Heart Of Midlothian chasing top-2 (P3)
- 🏆 Rangers in title race (P2)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Hearts 50% win rate, strong home run DWW; Rangers 80% win rate but DWWWL away in recent trips
H2H: 3-2-3 split over last 8, avg 3.1 goals, 2-1 scorelines highly recurring
Stakes: Hearts pushing for top-2 at P3, Rangers chasing title at P2 — both highly motivated meaning neither will park the bus
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Three of the last five H2H meetings ended 2-1, always producing goals for both sides; fixture averages 3.1 goals per game suggesting an open, competitive contest rather than a tight shut-out
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
