📊 Recent Form
Charlotte
CF Montreal
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Charlotte at 58%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 24% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Charlotte at 58% where the consensus of 8 bookmakers has 62% — a gap against us of 4 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as medium at 52/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📖 The Preview
Charlotte look the stronger side here and the numbers back that up, with nearly a 60% chance of taking all three points. Montreal have been pretty woeful lately, winning just two of their last ten and carrying a fair few injury concerns including multiple lower-body issues that could hamper their movement. Charlotte's form hasn't been flawless either, but they're meaningfully better at home and the model sees this as a controlled win rather than a thriller, with both teams unlikely to score and the game staying under three goals.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 8 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte Win | 1/2 1.50 | 62% | 58% | -4% |
| Draw | 7/2 4.63 | 20% | 24% | +4% |
| CF Montreal Win | 4/1 5.17 | 18% | 18% | ±0% |
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Charlotte mixed overall but stronger at home (W in last home game); CF Montreal poor road form DLL with avg 0.89 goals scored.
H2H: Neutral dominance over 8 games but Charlotte won most recent meeting 2-1 in Sep 2026; avg 2.4 goals per H2H game.
Stakes: Late-season MLS fixture — Charlotte likely pushing for playoff positioning, providing meaningful motivation; Montreal with little to play for.
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
H2H is evenly split historically but Charlotte took the most recent encounter 2-1 in September 2026; H2H averages 2.4 goals per game suggesting moderate scoring, and Charlotte have won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.
