📊 Recent Form
New England Revolution
New York Red Bulls
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts New England Revolution at 51%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 25% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
Across 8 bookmakers the consensus lands within 2 points of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 62/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📖 The Preview
New England Revolution at home is the key thing here. Their recent form is genuinely impressive, winning seven of their last ten, and on their own patch with a 51% win probability they're slight but clear favourites. The Red Bulls have been inconsistent, losing five of their last ten, and losing Che to a knee injury hurts their attacking options. Revolution have injury concerns of their own with Harrison, Yusuf and Campana all out, but enough to edge it 2-1 in what should be an open, both-teams-scoring kind of game.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 8 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Revolution Win | 10/11 1.92 | 49% | 51% | +2% |
| Draw | 3/1 4.03 | 23% | 25% | +2% |
| New York Red Bulls Win | 5/2 3.40 | 28% | 24% | -4% |
🔍 Key Stats
Form: NE Revolution strong at 70% win rate, 1.9 avg goals scored; NYRB struggling at 40% win rate, 1.25 avg goals scored away
H2H: NYRB lead 4-3-1 in last 8, but NE win at home; avg 2.9 goals/game shows open encounters
Stakes: Late-season MLS fixture with playoff positioning potentially at stake — both sides motivated
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
NYRB shade the H2H with 4 wins to NE's 3 (1 draw), but recent meetings have been high-scoring affairs — 5-3, 4-2, 2-1 — suggesting neither defence is dominant. Home advantage has been a decisive factor in several meetings.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
