📊 Recent Form
San Jose Earthquakes
Colorado Rapids
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts San Jose Earthquakes at 46%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 30% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
Across 8 bookmakers the consensus lands within 2 points of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 58/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📖 The Preview
San Jose are slight favourites here at home against a Colorado side who've been pretty inconsistent lately, and that edge should tell. The Rapids are missing Steffen in goal and Sadiq up top, which is a real problem, and San Jose look just about solid enough at home to nick this. Colorado will get one back, they've got enough quality to cause problems, but San Jose see it out 2-1. Both sides score, just enough goals to make it interesting, but the home side take the three points.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 8 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes Win | 11/10 2.11 | 44% | 46% | +2% |
| Draw Value | 11/4 3.74 | 25% | 30% | +5% |
| Colorado Rapids Win | 2/1 3.07 | 31% | 24% | -7% |
🔍 Key Stats
Form: San Jose averaging 1.28 scored at home with wins in recent fixtures; Colorado averaging 1.22 scored but only 20% win rate and DLDL away form
H2H: Balanced series (3-2-3) but Colorado have scored in majority of recent meetings; avg 2.3 goals/game in H2H
Stakes: Both teams mid-table with normal motivation — no strong pressure either way, slight home edge from league position (P4 vs P8)
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Last 5 H2H meetings have produced goals for both sides in 4 of 5 fixtures, with an average of 2.3 goals/game. The series is perfectly balanced (3 wins each, 2 draws), but San Jose's home advantage and Colorado's away struggles (DLDL) tip the scales slightly toward the hosts.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
