📊 Recent Form
Chicago Fire
Orlando City SC
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Chicago Fire at 53%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 23% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Chicago Fire at 53% where the consensus of 8 bookmakers has 56% — a gap against us of 3 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 58/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📖 The Preview
Chicago Fire look like the right side to be on here. Their home record and a 53% win probability edge them ahead of an Orlando side that's been inconsistent, winning three on the spin before that recent wobble. The head-to-head is pretty evenly split, so this isn't a walkover, and Orlando will likely nick one, which is why both teams scoring makes sense. But Chicago doing enough at home to edge it 2-1 feels right given where both sides are at right now.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 8 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire Win | 4/6 1.66 | 56% | 53% | -3% |
| Draw | 7/2 4.45 | 21% | 23% | +2% |
| Orlando City SC Win | 3/1 4.13 | 23% | 24% | +1% |
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Chicago home record shows wins in 3 of last 5 at home; Orlando away form is poor with 3 losses in last 5 away games
H2H: High-scoring fixture averaging 3.4 goals/game, Chicago have won 2 of last 3 H2H meetings at home
Stakes: Late-season MLS fixture, both sides likely competing for playoff positioning which adds motivation to both
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Last 8 meetings are evenly split (3-2-3) but average 3.4 goals per game — a consistently open and entertaining fixture. Chicago have won the last two home H2H matches convincingly (3-1 twice), giving them a clear venue advantage.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
