📊 Recent Form
Cremonese
Juve Stabia
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 43%. Cremonese edge it at 42% against 27% for the draw and 31% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have Cremonese at 42% where the consensus of 4 bookmakers has 54% — a gap against us of 12 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 59/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Juve Stabia got the job done with a single-goal victory, edging Cremonese 1-0 in a match that played out far tighter than the pre-match prediction suggested. Marco Bellich broke the deadlock in the 24th minute, finishing off an assist from Fabio Maistro, and that proved enough to settle it. For two sides scrapping at the bottom of the table, it was a cagey affair—both teams under the cosh, both desperate for points, and ultimately Juve Stabia's clinical edge made the difference.
Our model had leaned toward a 2-1 scoreline favoring Cremonese, backed by a 42 percent win probability for the hosts against 31 percent for the visitors. That was a lean among plausible outcomes rather than a confident call, and the match didn't unfold that way. Going in, the numbers had flagged Juve Stabia as the more prolific side on their recent form, but also suggested both teams would likely find the back of the net—the kind of attacking balance that pointed toward goals at both ends. What actually happened was a shutout, and Cremonese couldn't capitalize on home advantage to level things up. The visitors' clinical finish proved the difference in a result that reminds you why you can't take 42 percent as gospel—football doesn't always cooperate with the percentages.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 4 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cremonese Win | 8/11 1.74 | 54% | 42% | -12% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.64 | 26% | 27% | +1% |
| Juve Stabia Win Value | 7/2 4.59 | 20% | 31% | +11% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Cremonese in relegation danger (P16, only 1 pt cushion)
- 🆘 Juve Stabia in relegation danger (P18/20)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Cremonese avg 0.96 scored/1.19 conceded; Juve Stabia avg 1.53 scored/1.17 conceded — visitors the more potent side
H2H: 2.7 avg goals/game over last 6, Cremonese edge in wins but Juve Stabia won last away meeting
Stakes: Both in relegation zone — Juve Stabia (P18) under greater pressure and likely to push harder for three points
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
H2H favours Cremonese slightly (3W 2D 1L) but Juve Stabia won last away fixture 2-1 and recent meetings average 2.7 goals — competitive and fairly open encounters historically.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
