📊 Recent Form
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
Gimnasia L.P.
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 42%. Gimnasia L.P. edge it at 41% against 29% for the draw and 30% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have Gimnasia L.P. at 41% where the consensus of 10 bookmakers has 52% — a gap against us of 11 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 1 goal. Below the 2.5 line and then some — a game the model expects to turn on a single moment rather than on volume.
Confidence is filed as low at 35/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto Win Value | 7/2 4.73 | 20% | 30% | +10% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.35 | 28% | 29% | +1% |
| Gimnasia L.P. Win | 4/5 1.81 | 52% | 41% | -11% |
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto xG 0.7 | Gimnasia L.P. xG 1.49
Projected: 17% / 32% / 51%
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 0-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited H2H data
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 0-1 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 0-1 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.
