📊 Recent Form
Sarmiento Junin
Rosario Central
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 42%. Rosario Central edge it at 41% against 31% for the draw and 28% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have Rosario Central at 41% where the consensus of 10 bookmakers has 47% — a gap against us of 6 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 1 goal. Below the 2.5 line and then some — a game the model expects to turn on a single moment rather than on volume.
Confidence is filed as low at 35/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarmiento Junin Win | 3/1 3.91 | 24% | 28% | +4% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.23 | 29% | 31% | +2% |
| Rosario Central Win | 1/1 1.98 | 47% | 41% | -6% |
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Sarmiento Junin xG 0.74 | Rosario Central xG 1.52
Projected: 14% / 36% / 50%
H2H: 2W-1D-5L
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 0-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
2W-1D-5L for Sarmiento Junin in H2H
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 0-1 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 0-1 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.
