📊 Recent Form
Fredrikstad
Bodo/Glimt
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine makes Bodo/Glimt a 60% call — a clear lean, and about as certain as this model gets on a three-way market where the draw always takes a share of the book.
We have Bodo/Glimt at 60% where the consensus of 13 bookmakers has 73% — a gap against us of 13 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as high at 76/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Bodo/Glimt held their nerve on the road to beat Fredrikstad 2-1 and maintain their title-race momentum. Ole Didrik Blomberg opened the scoring early for the visitors in the 29th minute, assisted by Patrick Berg. Fredrikstad pulled level through Bryan Fiabema's finish in the 56th, set up by Henrik Langaas Skogvold, but Bodo/Glimt restored their lead when Jens Petter Hauge struck in the 73rd, courtesy of Sondre Fet's assist. It was a controlled away performance that reflected the gulf in form between the two sides.
Our model's pre-match prediction of a 1-2 scoreline landed spot on, and the win probability of 60% for Bodo/Glimt gave them a strong lean—though not an overwhelming favourite tag. Before kickoff, the data pointed clearly in their direction: they were on an unbeaten run while Fredrikstad's form had been patchy, and Bodo/Glimt's attacking firepower and head-to-head dominance suggested they'd create problems. The match unfolded largely as expected, with the visitors' quality shining through even when Fredrikstad briefly equalized.
Getting the exact scoreline right is rare in football. It came down to sound reading of both teams' underlying shape—Bodo/Glimt's proven finishing and Fredrikstad's vulnerability, combined with the likelihood of a competitive but ultimately one-sided contest. The model steered clear of the contrarian calls floating elsewhere and backed what the form and fixture dynamics suggested. Three points delivered for the title hopefuls.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fredrikstad Win Value | 8/1 9.00 | 11% | 24% | +13% |
| Draw | 9/2 5.75 | 16% | 16% | ±0% |
| Bodo/Glimt Win | 1/4 1.27 | 73% | 60% | -13% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 Bodo/Glimt in title race (P1)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Fredrikstad inconsistent (WWWWLLLLDD) with avg 1.3 goals scored; Bodo/Glimt dominant (WWWWWDWWWW) scoring 3.38/game
H2H: Bodo/Glimt 6 wins from last 7, including 5-0 away victory; pattern strongly away-dominant
Stakes: Bodo/Glimt in title race (P1), high motivation; Fredrikstad mid-table, normal motivation
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Bodo/Glimt have won 6 of the last 7 meetings, with Fredrikstad failing to score in 3 of the last 4 H2H clashes at home; the pattern is one of comprehensive away dominance.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
