Genoa got the job done against Venezia with a narrow 1-0 victory at home, claiming three points in a battle between two sides fighting relegation. Mikael Ellertsson broke the deadlock in the 25th minute with help from Stephan El Shaarawy, and that proved enough to settle the match. It wasn't the goal rush our model had pencilled in—we'd predicted a 2-1 scoreline—but the result direction was right. Genoa had the win probability advantage going in at 48%, so there was a lean towards them, though it was far from a confident call given how tight the margins were between all three outcomes.

The match unfolded in a way that partly aligned with the pre-match setup. Genoa's home record and Venezia's struggles on the road suggested a Genoa win was plausible, and that's what happened. What didn't materialise was the goal-heavy affair we'd flagged. Both sides sit in serious peril at the bottom of the table, but neither managed to find the back of the net after that early Ellertsson goal. It's a reminder that even when the underlying factors point to a certain type of game—in this case, a cagey, high-stakes affair that might produce multiple goals—reality can be messier and tighter than the numbers suggest. Genoa took what they needed and held on.