📊 Recent Form
Mantova
Pisa
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Mantova at 48%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 26% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Mantova at 48% where the consensus of 9 bookmakers has 34% — a gap in our favour of 14 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as high at 72/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Mantova and Pisa shared the spoils in a dramatic Serie B clash that swung both ways before settling in a 2-2 draw. Gliozzi gave Mantova an early lead in the eighth minute with an assist from Ignacchiti, but Pisa clawed back before the break when Pittarello levelled from Moreo's pass on 38 minutes. Moreo then put Pisa ahead in the 57th minute, finishing off a move started by Zanon, and it looked like the visitors might nick it. That changed dramatically when Mantova were reduced to ten men after Modesto's red card in the 71st minute. Yet despite the numerical disadvantage, Mantova refused to fold—Vlahovic salvaged a point in the 90+3rd minute, assisted by Bragantini, to secure the draw.
Our model predicted a 2-1 Mantova win, landing on the right scoreline but backing the wrong team. The draw carried just 26 percent in our pre-match read, so this wasn't the primary scenario we'd flagged. We'd leaned on Mantova's title-chasing form at home and the motivation gap against a mid-table Pisa with little to fight for, expecting that edge to show. Instead, Pisa proved far more resilient away than the underlying pattern suggested, and Mantova's numerical disadvantage from the 71st minute onward made holding the lead impossible. The match did play out as a high-scoring affair—consistent with the H2H history—but the distribution of goals didn't break our way.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mantova Win Value | 7/4 2.73 | 34% | 48% | +14% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.25 | 29% | 26% | -3% |
| Pisa Win | 6/4 2.48 | 37% | 26% | -11% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 Mantova in title race (P1)
- 😴 Pisa mid-table (P9) — low motivation
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Mantova in outstanding home form, Pisa inconsistent away with only 3 away games showing L-W-W
H2H: Both prior meetings saw Pisa win and combined 4.5 goals per game — history leans high-scoring
Stakes: Mantova chasing title (P1), Pisa mid-table (P9) with nothing to play for — strong motivation gap favours home side
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Pisa won both recent meetings (3-1 and 3-2 at Mantova's ground), but both games were high-scoring — that goal-heavy pattern supports at least 3 total goals here even if the home side finally reverses the result.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
