Monza's promotion push hit a speed bump on Sunday as Empoli fought back from behind to secure a 2-2 draw at the Stadio Brianteo. Shpendi's shock opener in the first minute set the tone for an afternoon that defied the pre-match script, with Petagna's 29th-minute equaliser restoring order before Delli Carri appeared to have settled matters with a 65th-minute second. But Empoli's resilience—or perhaps Monza's defensive fragility—surfaced when Shpendi converted again in the 90th minute to deny the hosts all three points in a match that ultimately belonged to neither side.

Our model predicted a 2-1 Monza victory with 79% confidence in a home win, missing the mark on both the result direction and the exact scoreline. The forecast leaned heavily on Monza's strong recent home form (WWDW) and Empoli's abysmal away record (LLLDLL), factors that did materialise in how the match unfolded tactically. Yet we underestimated Empoli's capacity to convert chances despite their mid-table complacency, and we overestimated how comfortably Monza would close out the game. The early Shpendi goal disrupted the expected rhythm, and while Monza did engineer attacking opportunities that led to their two goals, the failure to defend set pieces or manage closing phases proved costly. Empoli's away form was indeed poor, but not so poor as to be irrelevant—they came to compete, and nearly took a point that their league position suggested they'd squander.