📊 Recent Form
Padova
Carrarese
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Padova at 49%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 26% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
Across 10 bookmakers the consensus lands within 1 points of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 1 goal. Below the 2.5 line and then some — a game the model expects to turn on a single moment rather than on volume.
Confidence is filed as low at 35/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padova Win | 10/11 1.91 | 49% | 49% | ±0% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.40 | 28% | 26% | -2% |
| Carrarese Win | 3/1 3.98 | 23% | 25% | +2% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 Padova mid-table (P7) — low motivation
- 🆘 Carrarese in relegation danger (P20/20)
- ⚠️ Narrow-margin home pick — risk factors detected for Padova, confidence reduced
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Padova averaging 0.95 goals scored at home with a mixed but better record than Carrarese; Carrarese averaging just 0.32 goals scored and conceding 1.25 per game in poor away form (LDLWL)
H2H: Last two meetings produced 1-0 and 0-0 — extremely low scoring pattern, Padova won the most recent home encounter
Stakes: Carrarese are bottom of the table in a relegation battle but their poor goal output undermines any attacking boost; Padova are mid-table with lower motivation but home comfort and squad fitness advantage
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Last two meetings: Padova 1-0 Carrarese and Carrarese 0-0 Padova — both games were extremely tight and low-scoring, with Carrarese failing to score in either fixture and the aggregate being just 1 goal across 180 minutes.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.
