📊 Recent Form
San Jose Earthquakes
Houston Dynamo
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 39%. Houston Dynamo edge it at 38% against 27% for the draw and 35% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have Houston Dynamo at 38% where the consensus of 8 bookmakers has 33% — a gap in our favour of 5 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 58/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
San Jose pulled off a result that nobody—least of all our model—saw coming. Daniel Munie's finish in the 38th minute, set up by Beau Leroux, proved to be the only goal of the match. The Earthquakes held firm to claim a 1-0 win against Houston, a performance that flatly contradicted the pre-match picture.
Our model gave San Jose just a 35% chance of victory and predicted a 1-2 scoreline in Houston's favor. The reasoning was straightforward: Houston were on an excellent run and sat second in the table with clear championship ambitions, while San Jose were in a poor patch at home. The model weighted Houston's form and motivation heavily, and on paper it was hard to argue with that logic. But football doesn't play on paper. San Jose came out, took their chance when it arrived, and shut the door—a clean sheet that turned everything we'd flagged on its head.
This one stings a bit for the model. We missed both the result direction and the exact score, and it's worth owning that plainly. The miss wasn't about an unlikely outcome becoming reality; it was about underestimating San Jose's ability to execute when it mattered, despite their troubles beforehand. Sometimes a team's form and a team's performance on the day don't line up, and that's exactly what happened here.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 8 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes Win | 11/8 2.35 | 40% | 35% | -5% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.53 | 27% | 27% | ±0% |
| Houston Dynamo Win Value | 7/4 2.78 | 33% | 38% | +5% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🇪🇺 San Jose Earthquakes in European race (P5)
- 🏆 Houston Dynamo in title race (P2)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: San Jose on poor run (LLDLL at home, 10% win rate); Houston in excellent form (WWWWW last 5 away results, 60% win rate)
H2H: Houston dominant with 4 wins vs 2 for San Jose; avg 3 goals/game in recent meetings suggesting goals are likely
Stakes: Houston in title race (P2) provides maximum motivation; San Jose in European race (P5) gives them reason to fight but injuries undermine their threat
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Houston have won 4 of the last 8 meetings with 2 draws and 2 San Jose wins; fixtures average 3 goals per game including a 3-3 and multiple multi-goal results; Houston winning trend is clear.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
