📊 Recent Form
Seattle Sounders
Houston Dynamo
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 43%. Seattle Sounders edge it at 42% against 33% for the draw and 25% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have Seattle Sounders at 42% where the consensus of 8 bookmakers has 50% — a gap against us of 8 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 60/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📖 The Preview
Seattle come into this one as the team to beat, and that unbeaten run of seven from their last ten at home tells you they're tough to break down on their own patch. Houston have been frustratingly draw-heavy lately and just haven't looked like a side that can go to Seattle and nick three points. The head-to-head backs that up too, with the Sounders unbeaten in this fixture. Both sides should find the net, but Seattle's edge at home makes 2-1 the comfortable call here.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 8 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Sounders Win | 5/6 1.85 | 50% | 42% | -8% |
| Draw Value | 11/4 3.82 | 25% | 33% | +8% |
| Houston Dynamo Win | 11/4 3.79 | 25% | 25% | ±0% |
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Seattle home record DWWWD is strong; Houston away DDLD shows vulnerability on the road
H2H: Seattle unbeaten in last 7 (3W 4D), fixture historically draw-prone but Seattle dominant at home
Stakes: Both teams mid-table (P7 and P5 of 15), normal motivation — slight home advantage edge
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Seattle are unbeaten in the last 7 H2H meetings (3 wins, 4 draws), with Houston failing to win any encounter. The fixture is historically low-scoring (1.7 goals/game avg), but Seattle's home meetings tend to produce slightly more action than neutral/away ties.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
