St. Louis City dominated Toronto FC on home turf to secure a 3-1 victory and extend their push toward the European places. The hosts got off to a strong start and found the net through Holse in the 41st minute, with Matan providing the assist. City doubled their advantage early in the second half when Totland made it 2-0 just after the hour mark, again with Matan the creator. Becher added a third in the 68th minute, courtesy of a Wallem assist, to put the result beyond doubt. Toronto pulled one back late through Corbeanu in the 90+7th minute—Coello with the assist—but it came far too late to alter the outcome.

Our model tipped St. Louis City to win with a 55% probability, so calling the result direction was straightforward. The predicted 2-0 scoreline, though, didn't quite materialize. We had City's strong home form and Toronto's struggles on the road pointing toward a tighter, lower-scoring affair, but the visitors simply couldn't contain the hosts' attacking intent and leaked three goals instead. The Matan-inspired performance—two assists in a dominant first-half showing—proved the difference. City's European ambitions meant they came with genuine teeth, and it showed.

It's a solid result and direction for the model, but missing the exact margin is a fair reminder that dominance doesn't always translate to the tidy scorelines we sometimes project. Still, backing the City win in that fixture was the right call.