AC Milan won convincingly at Udinese, running out 2-0 victors in a match that saw the visitors settle the affair early and then manage the game through to the final whistle. Pulisic opened the scoring in the sixth minute with an assist from Modrić, and Milan doubled their lead in the 65th when Hutchinson found the net. Udinese couldn't break through a solid Milan defence and offered little going forward, leaving the hosts with nothing to show despite the urgency their precarious league position demanded.

Our model leaned toward a 1-2 Milan win before kickoff, giving that result a 47% probability—the most likely outcome among plausible scenarios but far from a certainty. We called the winner correctly, though the exact scoreline eluded us; Milan were sharper than we'd anticipated, cutting through Udinese's defence without reply rather than conceding the goal our projection had factored in. The pre-match context flagged Milan's fatigue risk after a midweek European fixture and Udinese's significant rest advantage, alongside the visitors' patchy away form. That rest edge and the stakes of Udinese's relegation battle didn't materialise into the kind of spirited home performance that might have troubled Milan. Instead, the visitors controlled matters from the off and converted their chances with clinical efficiency.

It's a reminder that even when a model picks the right team, the margin and flow of the match often tell a different story. Milan's quality showed up when it counted; Udinese simply couldn't respond.