📊 Recent Form
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 43%. Aberdeen edge it at 42% against 30% for the draw and 28% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have Aberdeen at 42% where the consensus of 9 bookmakers has 50% — a gap against us of 8 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 1 goal. Below the 2.5 line and then some — a game the model expects to turn on a single moment rather than on volume.
Confidence is filed as medium at 66/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Aberdeen put on a clinical second-half display to brush aside St Mirren 3-1 at Pittodrie, with a stunning turnaround after the teams were level at the break. Brad Lyons gave the hosts an early lead in the second minute with Connor Patrick Ronan picking out the assist, but St Mirren levelled things up just before half-time when Eseosa Sule finished off a move set up by Killian Phillips. The real action came after the interval. Kevin Nisbet struck twice in quick succession around the hour mark—first from the penalty spot at 58 minutes, then immediately again moments later—to flip the script entirely. Ayoub Mouloua added a fourth with Afeez Aremu Olalekan credited with the assist at 72 minutes, leaving the visitors with no way back.
Our model came into this one backing Aberdeen to win, though it was hardly the most confident call: the win probability sat at 42 percent, with a 30 percent lean toward a draw and St Mirren given a 28 percent shot. We'd predicted a tight 1-0 scoreline, so whilst we got the result direction right, the actual match was far more open and free-flowing than anticipated. The key difference was Aberdeen's clinical edge in the second half—particularly Nisbet's penalty conversion and the quick follow-up—which lifted the game well clear of the cagey contest our model had envisaged. St Mirren's away defensive record had looked fragile in the pre-match numbers, and that vulnerability was exposed once Aberdeen found their rhythm after half-time. It's a reminder that even when you nail the direction of travel, the scoreline can run away with you in either direction.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen Win | 5/6 1.84 | 50% | 42% | -8% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.62 | 26% | 30% | +4% |
| ST Mirren Win | 3/1 3.92 | 24% | 28% | +4% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Aberdeen avg 1.2 scored / 0.93 conceded at home; St Mirren avg 0.76 scored / 2.65 conceded away — but away defensive record is skewed by heavy losses
H2H: St Mirren historically dominant (5 wins in last 8), avg 2.8 goals/game, recent 3-3 and multiple goal-laden meetings
Stakes: Both teams P7-8/12, mid-table, no relegation or title pressure — draw lean applies
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
St Mirren have won 5 of the last 8 meetings and are classed as away_dominant in this fixture, but the most recent Pittodrie clash ended 3-3 in December 2025, confirming both teams routinely score against each other in this rivalry.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.
