Al-Ittihad FC dominated this Saudi Pro League fixture, running out comfortable 3-1 winners at Al-Faisaly FC. Bergwijn opened the scoring in the 28th minute with an assist from Ríos Montoya, then En-Nesyri doubled the lead just before the break with Ilenikhena setting him up. The visiting side put the result beyond doubt in the 59th minute when En-Nesyri struck again, this time also from an Ilenikhena assist. Al-Faisaly pulled one back late through Bongonda in the 87th minute—Haddad providing the assist—but it only ever looked like consolation.

Our model leaned toward an Al-Ittihad win, setting that outcome at 38% probability before kickoff, so we got the result direction right. We'd predicted a tighter 0-1 scoreline based on expected goals favoring the visitors but not overwhelmingly so. The actual margin was bigger. What shifted the game was Al-Faisaly's inability to convert their chances early on, while Al-Ittihad made their attacking intent count from the first half onward. Our model had En-Nesyri and company as the more dangerous outfit, and that's how it played out—they just proved far more clinical than the 0-1 projection suggested.

The result sits well within the range of plausible outcomes we'd flagged beforehand, even if the scoreline itself fell outside our central call. Al-Ittihad's win was the second most likely scenario in our pre-match thinking, and they delivered it convincingly enough to leave no doubt about which side was stronger on the day.