Al-Ahli Jeddah came away with a 3-2 win over Al-Fayha in a match that swung back and forth across both halves. Hugo Moura got Al-Fayha in front in the 44th minute with Ahmed Bamasud providing the assist, but Artem Bondarenko levelled for Al-Ahli just three minutes later. The momentum shifted decisively after the break when Firas Al-Buraikan converted a penalty in the 59th minute to put Al-Ahli two goals clear. Jason Remeseiro pulled one back for Al-Fayha in the 65th minute, but it wasn't quite enough—Bondarenko sealed it late in the 70th minute, assisted by Valentin Atangana Edoa, to secure the three points for Al-Ahli.

Our model had favoured an Al-Ahli win heading into the match, giving them a 53% probability of victory compared to Al-Fayha's 23%. The prediction of a 0-2 scoreline reflected the underlying expectation that Al-Ahli's attacking threat—measured at 2.3 expected goals versus Al-Fayha's 0.75—would translate into a more comfortable margin. On the result itself we got it right; Al-Ahli did win. What we didn't foresee was how Al-Fayha would claw back into the contest with goals either side of the hour mark, turning what looked like a routine away win into a tighter affair. That's football—the model catches the likely direction, but the detail of how a game plays out often surprises you. Al-Ahli's quality eventually told, but they had to work harder than our pre-match metrics suggested they would.