📊 Recent Form
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Abha
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine makes Al-Qadisiyah FC a 68% call — a clear lean, and about as certain as this model gets on a three-way market where the draw always takes a share of the book.
We have Al-Qadisiyah FC at 68% where the consensus of 9 bookmakers has 83% — a gap against us of 15 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as medium at 54/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Abha 2-1 in a match that played out broadly as expected in terms of dominance, even if the final scoreline didn't quite match the forecast. The designated home side controlled the game from the start, with Mateo Retegui opening the scoring from the penalty spot in the fifth minute. Retegui doubled the lead in the 30th minute, assisted by Tijjani Reijnders, and looked to have settled it early. Abu Al-Shamat added a third for Al-Qadisiyah FC in the 69th minute with Retegui setting him up, but the scoreline eventually read 2-1 after Gory pulled one back for Abha deep into stoppage time, finishing from Safwan Al Johani's assist.
Our pre-match model leaned toward a 2-0 win for Al-Qadisiyah FC and handed the home side a 68% win probability. The result direction was spot-on, but we got the exact scoreline wrong — we didn't anticipate a late Abha goal. That said, the underlying shape held up: Al-Qadisiyah FC dominated a side in real trouble at the bottom of the table and delivered a comfortable three-goal performance. The gap in class and motivation between a title-chasing outfit and a team fighting relegation showed itself through most of the match, and it took a breakaway in injury time for Abha to get on the board at all. Not a perfect call on the details, but the model's lean on the destination proved sound.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Qadisiyah FC Win | 1/8 1.12 | 83% | 68% | -15% |
| Draw Value | 7/1 8.20 | 11% | 16% | +5% |
| Abha Win Value | 14/1 16.00 | 6% | 16% | +10% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 Al-Qadisiyah FC in title race (P2)
- 🆘 Abha in relegation danger (P18/18)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Al-Qadisiyah FC averaging 3+ goals scored, Abha on a 9-match winless run with only 0.69 avg goals scored
H2H: Two draws in 2021, but heavily outdated given Abha's dramatic form deterioration
Stakes: Al-Qadisiyah FC chasing title (P2) vs Abha fighting relegation (P18/18) — home side has clear motivational edge and squad quality
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Both previous H2H meetings ended in draws (1-1 and 2-2) but these are from early 2021 and Abha's form has collapsed dramatically since then, making historical neutrality largely irrelevant.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.
