📊 Recent Form
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al-Ettifaq
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine makes Al-Qadisiyah FC a 64% call — a clear lean, and about as certain as this model gets on a three-way market where the draw always takes a share of the book.
We have Al-Qadisiyah FC at 64% where the consensus of 11 bookmakers has 74% — a gap against us of 10 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as medium at 55/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ettifaq served up a six-goal thriller that ended level at three apiece, completely upending what looked like a straightforward home win on paper. Qadisiyah started brightly and went two up inside the opening quarter-hour—Quiñones broke the deadlock in the 12th minute with help from Abu Al-Shamat, then Retegui doubled the lead just three minutes later off Bonsu Baah's assist. It looked like the visitors were in for a long day, but Ettifaq had other ideas. Celina pulled one back in the 26th minute through Kanté's assist, and suddenly there was life in the contest. Qadisiyah thought they'd sealed it when Al-Qahtani made it 3-1 in the 81st minute courtesy of Al-Ammar's pass, but Ettifaq weren't finished. Medrán levelled in the 64th minute with Duda's help, then Larsson snatched a dramatic 85th-minute equalizer after receiving the ball from Medrán to earn a draw.
Our model had fancied a 2-0 Qadisiyah win, giving the draw just 21% and rating it an unlikely outcome. The underlying xG picture—Qadisiyah at 2.18 versus Ettifaq's 0.69—suggested a lopsided affair with a clean sheet for one side, so we missed the actual script entirely. This wasn't a case of the match playing out broadly as expected; Ettifaq outperformed their pre-match profile considerably, finding the net three times despite the model's lean heavily against them. Qadisiyah did dominate possession and chance creation early on, but they couldn't hold the line when it mattered, and Ettifaq's comeback proved there's always room for surprise when the ball's in the air.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 11 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Qadisiyah FC Win | 1/4 1.24 | 74% | 64% | -10% |
| Draw Value | 5/1 6.10 | 15% | 21% | +6% |
| Al-Ettifaq Win | 7/1 8.30 | 11% | 15% | +4% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 Al-Qadisiyah FC in title race (P2)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Al-Qadisiyah FC xG 2.18 | Al-Ettifaq xG 0.69
Projected: 75% / 18% / 7%
H2H: 4W-1D-3L
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
4W-1D-3L for Al-Qadisiyah FC in H2H
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.
