Al-Hilal Saudi FC came from behind to edge Al-Qadisiyah FC in a competitive title-race clash, winning 3-2 in a match that delivered more goals than our model had anticipated. Gabriel Martinelli opened the scoring early for Al-Hilal in the 21st minute, assisted by Ollie Watkins, but Al-Qadisiyah levelled through Julián Quiñones ten minutes later, with Musab Al-Juwayr setting up the chance. The match stayed tight into the second half until Al-Hilal pulled clear: Rúben Neves made it 2-1 in the 77th minute off Sergej Milinković-Savić's assist, then Milinković-Savić himself added a third four minutes later, with Sultan Mandash credited. Al-Qadisiyah grabbed a late consolation through Mateo Retegui in the 87th minute, courtesy of Tijjani Reijnders, but it wasn't enough to force a draw.

Our model leaned toward a 1-2 win for Al-Hilal, assigning that outcome a 49 per cent probability—a lean among genuinely plausible results rather than a confident call. We did get the result direction right, but the scoreline itself slipped away from us. The match played out consistently with the pre-kick expectations around both teams' attacking intent and Al-Hilal's dominance in form, but it delivered an extra goal at either end. Both sides pressed forward as you'd expect in a title race, and the intensity showed in an open, end-to-end affair where neither side sat deep. Al-Hilal's superior form and winning record in this fixture held up, though Al-Qadisiyah's proven ability to score against them—flagged beforehand—meant they stayed competitive throughout and found the net twice rather than once.