Boca Juniors turned in a commanding performance to beat Central Cordoba de Santiago 3-1 in a match that played out as a clear win for the home side, though with a twist on the scoreline our model had expected. Ángel Romero opened the scoring early, finishing off Enner Valencia's assist in the fifth minute, and Valencia himself doubled the lead just six minutes later from Dylan Gorosito's pass. Romero added his second with another assist from Carlos Palacios in the 56th minute to put the tie well beyond reach. Central Cordoba grabbed a late goal through Martín Francisco Cuitiño—set up by Fernando Martinez in the 90th minute—but it came too late to threaten the outcome.

Our model had predicted a 2-0 scoreline and gave Boca a 58% chance of winning, so while we got the result direction spot on, the actual goal tally caught us short. The early narrative lined up with what we'd flagged before kickoff: Boca's home form and their position in the title race suggested they'd dominate a side battling relegation, and that's exactly how it unfolded. The model had leaned toward a tight clean sheet rather than an open game, so the extra two goals came as a surprise—Central Cordoba found the net late on rather than keeping things scoreless, and Boca added one more than we'd pencilled in. It's a reminder that while form and context point you in the right direction, individual matches rarely stick to the script exactly.