📊 Recent Form
Celtic
Heart Of Midlothian
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Celtic at 54%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 25% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Celtic at 54% where the consensus of 6 bookmakers has 60% — a gap against us of 6 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as high at 70/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Celtic absolutely dismantled Hearts in a performance that bore little resemblance to the tight contest our model had anticipated. Kieran Tierney opened the scoring inside seven minutes, and Benjamin Nygren made it two just three minutes later. Callum Osmand then bagged a brace in quick succession either side of the half-hour mark to leave Hearts shell-shocked at 4-0. Laurent Mendy pulled one back early in the second half, but an own goal from Jamie McCart restored Celtic's four-goal cushion before Camilo Duran added a fifth and Nygren claimed his second to wrap up a 7-1 rout.
Our model had leaned toward a Celtic win with 54% probability, but predicted a far tighter 2-1 scoreline. That reflected the pre-match context: Hearts came into the match with a strong away record and a high-scoring average, while Celtic's recent home form had been mixed. The fixture history suggested a competitive affair, with an average of 3.5 goals and several tight recent meetings. None of that materialised. Celtic were simply ruthless from the opening whistle, and Hearts had no answer whatsoever.
This was a thorough misjudgement on our part. The model weighted the underlying form and head-to-head patterns fairly heavily, but Celtic's intensity and clinical finishing—especially through Osmand and Nygren—were well beyond what those metrics had flagged. When a team performs this decisively, the pre-match data stops mattering pretty quickly.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 6 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic Win | 4/7 1.57 | 60% | 54% | -6% |
| Draw | 7/2 4.45 | 21% | 25% | +4% |
| Heart Of Midlothian Win | 4/1 4.80 | 19% | 21% | +2% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 Celtic in title race (P1)
- 🎯 Heart Of Midlothian chasing top-2 (P3)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Celtic 50% win rate but inconsistent at home (LLWW); Hearts strong away record (DLWWD) and high scoring avg (2.39)
H2H: High-scoring fixture averaging 3.5 goals, Celtic dominant at home (5 wins in 8 H2H), recent meetings include 3-1 and 2-2
Stakes: Celtic chasing title (P1), Hearts pushing for top-2 (P3) — both highly motivated, competitive contest expected
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Celtic have won 5 of the last 8 H2H meetings with home dominance confirmed; fixture consistently produces goals (3.5 avg), with the last five meetings all seeing at least 3 goals combined — trend strongly supports a multi-goal match.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
