Rangers made the most of their rest advantage to edge out Celtic in a tightly fought derby, with Ryan Naderi's 33rd-minute goal settling a match that remained cagey throughout. It was a deserved win for the visitors, who brought sharper legs and tighter discipline to Celtic Park—exactly the kind of pragmatic, low-scoring affair the pre-match context suggested was likely given both sides' defensive nous and derby volatility.

Our model called a 1-0 scoreline heading into kickoff, though it only assigned a 27% win probability to Rangers. That meant while we'd flagged a narrow outcome as plausible, we actually fancied Celtic to edge it on the balance of probabilities—the model leaned towards a Celtic win at 43%. The result flipped our primary expectation on its head. We'd weighted Celtic's home advantage and attacking quality heavily, and underestimated how much Rangers' seven-day rest advantage and solid defensive record would matter in such a compact, high-stakes contest. The derby's historical pattern of draws and low-scoring results held true, but Rangers' clinical finishing and fresher legs proved the difference.

What played out broadly matched the underlying shape we'd identified: a tight, defensive duel where one team would likely nick it. We just got the direction wrong. That's football—and it's exactly why these matches sit in the "plausible outcomes" band rather than the confident calls. Rangers' win was never unlikely, just leaner than we'd weighted it beforehand.